黄金单日波动极端化 牛市临近顶部？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price movements indicating a potential downtrend despite a long-term bullish outlook. The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to various factors, including the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and changing perceptions of gold as a scarce asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently shown extreme daily fluctuations, with a notable drop of over 5% on a single day, following a peak above $4,380 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by a "FOMO" (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment, which has now led to a correction phase as the market adjusts to previous gains [2]. - The market is currently characterized by a shift in perception regarding gold's asset properties, with increasing recognition of its value as a hedge against currency devaluation [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that the gold market may be entering a downward adjustment phase, with key resistance levels identified at $4,150, $4,117, and $4,108, while support levels are noted at $4,004, $3,940, and $3,915 [3]. - The trading volume has increased significantly, indicating heightened market activity, which may contribute to the current volatility [3]. - The absence of CFTC positioning data during the U.S. government shutdown has led to an imbalance in speculative positions, further exacerbating market fragility [2].