东北市场需求收尾 沥青市场注意力开始转向冬储

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt prices in Northeast China have continued to decline in October, with a significant drop in both average and low prices due to multiple factors including falling crude oil prices and weak demand during the traditional peak season [1][3]. Market Price Changes - As of October 20, the average price in the Northeast market decreased by 125 CNY/ton to 3796 CNY/ton, while the low price dropped by 250 CNY/ton to 3506 CNY/ton compared to the end of September [1]. - The prices in Hebei and Shandong also fell, with Hebei's low price down by 300 CNY/ton to 3340 CNY/ton and Shandong's low price down by 170 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton [5]. Demand Factors - The arrival of the strongest cold air in the second half of the year has led to a rapid decline in demand, with temperatures dropping significantly across northern regions [5]. - The production of modified asphalt in Northeast China has largely ceased by mid-October due to low temperatures, further weakening demand [5]. Supply Factors - Northeast refineries have increased production, leading to a surplus and forcing them to lower prices to stimulate sales [7]. - The limited number of refineries capable of producing asphalt in the Northeast has resulted in increased pressure on prices due to competition from external suppliers [5][7]. Future Market Outlook - Attention is shifting towards winter storage, with the pricing for winter storage yet to be determined based on the actions of major refineries in Shandong and Hebei [7]. - Current weather conditions in Shandong and Hebei are still suitable for construction, and refineries are expected to maintain good processing profits, indicating that the timing for winter storage may still be early [7].