多数经济学家预计日央行四季度将加息 日元贬值与通胀压力成关键推力

Group 1 - A recent survey indicates that the majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise policy interest rates in the fourth quarter, driven by inflationary pressures from the continued depreciation of the yen [1][2] - Among 35 surveyed economists, 60% anticipate an interest rate hike within this quarter, with 46% predicting it will occur in January 2026, 31% in December, and 14% in October [1] - Approximately 96% of economists forecast that by the end of March 2026, the Bank of Japan will raise rates by at least 25 basis points, increasing the short-term policy rate from the current 0.50% to 0.75% [1] Group 2 - The weak yen is significantly raising import costs, becoming a key consideration for the Bank of Japan's shift towards tightening monetary policy [2] - Although domestic political changes and global economic uncertainties may affect decision-making, Japan's inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, providing a basis for policy adjustments [2] - Continuous wage growth further supports the rationale for potential policy changes [2]