蛋价急跌成本难降 10-11月蛋鸡养殖或再陷亏损困局

Core Viewpoint - The egg-laying chicken farming industry experienced a brief period of profitability in September 2025, but quickly returned to losses in October due to declining egg prices and fluctuating feed costs [1][2][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, the number of laying hens increased by 0.22% compared to the previous month, leading to an oversupply of eggs in the market [4]. - Demand weakened significantly in October due to the end of pre-holiday stockpiling by food processing companies and reduced demand from schools and corporate cafeterias during the National Day holiday [4]. - As of mid-October, the shipment volume of eggs from production areas decreased by 5.48%, indicating a slowdown in market consumption [4]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The average profit per kilogram of eggs was 0.26 yuan in September, but by mid-October, it shifted to a loss of 0.22 yuan, marking a total decline of 0.39 yuan [2][9]. - Despite a slight decrease in feed costs due to new corn supplies, the drop in egg prices was more significant, leading to a negative impact on farming profitability [6][9]. - The average feed cost in October decreased by 0.09 yuan per kilogram compared to September, but this was insufficient to offset the larger decline in egg prices [6]. Future Outlook - For November, the egg market is expected to see a slight increase in demand, but supply pressures will remain, leading to a forecasted price stabilization between 3.00 and 3.10 yuan per kilogram [8]. - The overall expectation is for continued losses in the egg-laying industry, with average losses projected between 0.20 and 0.30 yuan per kilogram [9].