聚丙烯新增产能继续投放 2026年突破5000万吨

Core Insights - Domestic polypropylene (PP) production capacity has significantly increased in recent years, with expectations for over 20 million tons of new capacity to be released in the next five years, particularly in 2026 when capacity is projected to exceed 50 million tons, leading to increased supply pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Expansion - The domestic PP production capacity is expected to continue expanding at a rapid pace over the next five years, with an estimated new capacity of 23.145 million tons and an average growth rate of 8.19%, which is a decrease of 3.02 percentage points compared to the previous five years [2]. - In 2026, the new capacity is projected to reach 5.65 million tons, pushing total domestic capacity to over 50 million tons, resulting in increased supply pressure from domestic sources [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The period from 2026 to 2030 will see continued growth in domestic PP capacity, enhancing supply and increasing the self-sufficiency rate, thereby reducing reliance on imports [4]. - The new capacity in 2026 will primarily utilize oil and propane as raw materials, with a notable increase in coal-based production, which will enhance market share [4]. - Competition among producers is expected to intensify, with local refineries and light hydrocarbon enterprises being the main contributors to new capacity, while major state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina will have a relatively smaller share [4]. Group 3: Supply Impact - The timing of new capacity releases in 2026 indicates limited supply in the first half of the year, with a significant increase expected in the second half, which will exert considerable pressure on the supply side [5]. - The ongoing expansion of PP capacity is anticipated to lead to increased market competition and contribute to maintaining low price levels for PP in 2026 [5].