供需矛盾突出以及产能扩张 纯碱维持偏空观点

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.24% to 1222.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Market sentiment and focus are expected to fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash prices. The commissioning of the second phase of Yuanxing has entered the trial operation stage, leading to sustained supply pressure in the long term [1] - Upstream soda ash manufacturers are beginning to accumulate inventory, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of supply levels. The expectation for high long-term supply of soda ash remains unchanged, with normal maintenance continuing [1] - Downstream demand for soda ash is generally weak, primarily driven by just-in-time purchasing, with most transactions occurring at lower prices. There has been some improvement in spot transactions during the week [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.7107 million tons, an increase of 10,200 tons from the previous week, representing a 0.60% rise. This includes 770,500 tons of light soda ash (up 10,700 tons) and 940,200 tons of heavy soda ash (down 500 tons) [1] Market Outlook - The core factor for the decline in soda ash prices is the oversupply in the market, which has led to a continuous rise in inventory levels. Demand has not shown significant improvement, and the high inventory, prominent supply-demand contradictions, and capacity expansion are expected to continue suppressing soda ash prices, maintaining a bearish outlook on soda ash [1]