Macro News - On October 21, international gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline due to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven fund flows, leading to a slight pressure on gold prices [1] - As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate cut path, any pullback in gold prices will be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially if the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data does not show unexpected increases [1] - U.S. President Trump announced plans to visit China early next year, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasizing the strategic importance of communication between the two nations' leaders [1] - In Japan, Fumio Kishida was elected as the 104th Prime Minister, becoming the first female Prime Minister in Japanese history, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies and increased defense spending [1] Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.4%, reducing gold's appeal to non-dollar holders, while increased investor risk appetite diminished safe-haven demand [2] - Citigroup's report suggests that gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the next two to three weeks, as expectations of a U.S. government shutdown ending and easing trade tensions emerge [2] - Some market participants believe that the market is showing signs of a bubble, with gold prices being significantly overvalued after a $1,000 surge over six weeks, indicating an irrational high [2] - Central banks' continued purchases have been a crucial support for gold prices, but the quantity of gold bought by central banks decreased significantly last month [2] Institutional Perspectives - Gold has experienced unprecedented historical increases over the past fifty years, reaching a state of severe overbought conditions, making a pullback inevitable [2] - Historical patterns from 2011 and 2020 suggest that gold may either undergo wide-ranging fluctuations or a downward adjustment, with the likelihood of a wide-ranging fluctuation similar to 2011 being higher [2] - The short-term outlook for precious metals indicates a primary focus on fluctuating adjustments, followed by a potential rebound depending on future market conditions [2]
银河期货：市场短期调整 贵金属以震荡调整为主
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-22 07:09