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收评:沪指跌0.07%创业板指跌0.79% 两市成交缩量至1.7万亿元以下

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76 points, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 741.5 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.612 points, with a trading volume of 926.3 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.79% to 3059.32 points, with a trading volume of 416.5 billion yuan. The total trading volume for both markets was 1.67 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The mining industry, wind power equipment, real estate services, engineering machinery, and real estate development sectors saw the largest gains, while precious metals, jewelry, shipbuilding, coal, and gas sectors experienced the most significant declines [1]. Stock Highlights - The deep earth economy concept stocks performed strongly, with Shenke Co., Shihua Machinery, and CITIC Heavy Industries achieving three consecutive trading limit increases. Hubei state-owned assets continued to show strength, with Wuhan Holdings and others reaching two consecutive trading limit increases. Oil and gas stocks surged in the afternoon, with Beiken Energy hitting the trading limit. The banking sector also performed well, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a historical high. Conversely, battery stocks collectively weakened, with Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials experiencing significant declines [2]. Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market will enter a more sustained upward phase, expecting key indices to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a 5%-10% potential for further revaluation. The report highlights that a combination of demand-side stimulus and the new five-year plan will aid in growth rebalancing and risk mitigation. Additionally, AI is reshaping profit patterns, and the relative undervaluation of Chinese stocks presents a significant opportunity for asset reallocation [3]. - Jin Xin Fund notes that the market is showing resilience amid fluctuations, with a short-term outlook of "short-term fluctuations, a bottom in decline, and technology remaining the main line." The strong performance of technology stocks indicates limited downside potential in the current market [3]. - Huahui Chuangfu Investment suggests that favorable factors slightly outweigh the suppressive factors, indicating that the market is likely to maintain a sideways and slow upward trend. Key positive factors include a loose funding environment, foreign capital inflows, and signs of economic stabilization in China [4]. Economic Indicators - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETFs recorded the largest monthly inflow in history in September 2025, contributing to a record total inflow of 26 billion dollars in the third quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, the total assets under management for global gold ETFs reached a new high of 472 billion dollars, with total holdings increasing by 6% to 3838 tons [5]. - In Shanghai, the output value of the three leading industries in manufacturing increased by 8.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the AI manufacturing sector growing by 12.8%. The overall industrial output value in Shanghai rose by 5.2% year-on-year [6]. Financing Trends - The financing balance in the two markets increased by 13.907 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 1.228525 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 1.191148 trillion yuan [7][8].