创金合信基金魏凤春：疾风知劲草

Market Review and Outlook - The market has shown a continuation of previous trends, with gold and coal leading in weekly gains, indicating persistent global risk premiums [1] - The adjustment in the market is attributed to renewed trade tensions between China and the U.S., which has created uncertainty [1] - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 7.3%, while banks rose by 4.8%, contrasting with declines in sectors like electronics and media [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 showed a slowdown to 4.8%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, exceeding annual targets [4] - The economic growth pattern over the past five years has been characterized by "volatility convergence" and a stable central tendency, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating between 4.6% and 6.5% [3] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5%, highlighting a significant recovery in service consumption [5] Structural Changes in the Economy - The real estate sector continues to negatively impact economic growth, with a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate investment [6] - Manufacturing, finance, and information technology sectors have shown strong contributions to GDP growth, with manufacturing value added increasing by 6.3% [6] - The net export contribution to GDP growth was 24.5% in the third quarter, indicating a shift in export structure towards high-value products [7] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on fundamental factors that determine future trends and structures rather than on market rhythm influenced by risk premiums [8] - Companies that demonstrate positive GDP contributions and potential for profit generation are prioritized in investment strategies [8][9] - The dynamic interplay between capital and entrepreneurial spirit is crucial for growth, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence [10]