供应充足 短期豆粕缺乏上行的驱动力

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The EU's soybean meal import volume for the 2025/26 season is projected to decrease by 1% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Data - As of October 19, the EU's soybean meal import volume stands at 5.41 million tons [1]. - Brazil's soybean export volume for October is expected to reach 7.34 million tons, slightly above previous estimates [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal export volume is projected at 2.09 million tons, also higher than earlier forecasts [1]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in soybean meal futures warehouse receipts to 42,582 contracts, down by 150 contracts from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Domestic soybean supply is currently ample, with oil mills operating at high capacity; however, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is low, leading to a slow pace of soybean meal inventory reduction [2]. - Concerns regarding the long-term supply gap due to stalled US-China soybean trade are diminishing, with near-term soybean procurement nearly complete and steady progress in long-term procurement [2]. - Short-term soybean meal prices are expected to remain in a range-bound consolidation without upward momentum, with key factors to monitor including US-China trade developments and soybean arrival volumes [2]. - Weather forecasts indicate that Brazil's production areas will experience continuous rainfall starting at the end of October, which is favorable for crop conditions [2]. - There is an expectation of improved US-China trade relations, with significant gains in the domestic stock market and potential agreements on soybean procurement [2]. - Current spot supply remains sufficient, and the short-term market structure is unlikely to change, with expectations of weak and fluctuating soybean meal prices [2].