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华安证券:金融属性+供弱需强 银价中枢上行

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates a persistent global silver supply-demand gap, with a projected deficit of 4,633 tons in 2024 and an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, primarily driven by increased photovoltaic demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver supply is estimated at 31,574 tons and demand at 36,207 tons for 2024, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance [1] - Since 2021, the global silver market has consistently experienced a supply shortage, which is anticipated to continue into 2025 [1] Economic and Market Implications - Silver possesses unique industrial and financial attributes, contrasting with gold's stronger financial and safe-haven characteristics, leading to a widening gold-silver ratio during economic downturns [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December 2025, combined with quantitative easing and a rebound in industrial demand, suggests that silver prices may continue to rise [1]