通胀爆冷加剧英国央行降息猜测

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to decline, approaching $1.33, marking a one-week low with a drop of 0.31% due to inflation data falling short of market expectations, intensifying speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 1, driven by disappointing inflation data [1] - The overall inflation rate in September remained steady at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5%, also lower than the anticipated 3.7% [1] Group 2 - The UK government borrowed £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £7.2 billion [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of England may initiate rate cuts next year, following comments from Governor Bailey regarding a weak labor market and an unemployment rate rising to 4.8% [1] Group 3 - The GBP/USD technical analysis indicates that the exchange rate is close to $1.3330, failing to break the 20-day exponential moving average support level of $1.3407 [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00, with a potential bearish momentum if it falls below this level [2] Group 4 - Key support area is identified at the low of August 1 at 1.3140, while the psychological resistance level is at 1.3500 [3]