巴基斯坦2024-2025财年宏观经济出现企稳向好态势

Group 1 - The State Bank of Pakistan released its annual report for the fiscal year 2024-2025, indicating significant macroeconomic stability and positive trends in the financial sector, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1] - The GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 3.0%, an increase from 2.6% in the previous fiscal year, driven mainly by the services and industrial sectors, which grew by 3.0% and 5.3% respectively [1][3] - Inflation has been effectively controlled, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year to 4.5%, marking an eight-year low [1][3] Group 2 - The current account recorded a surplus of $2.113 billion, the first surplus in fourteen years, indicating an improvement in the international balance of payments [1][3] - The State Bank's foreign exchange reserves reached $14.506 billion by the end of the fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.48% [1][3] - Remittances from overseas workers continued to grow, totaling $38.3 billion for the year [1][3] Group 3 - The monetary policy committee of the State Bank reduced the policy interest rate by 1100 basis points during the fiscal year, ending at 11.0%, which has stimulated private sector credit growth by 12.2%, doubling from the previous fiscal year [1][3] - The fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.4% of GDP, while public debt as a percentage of GDP was 70.8%, slightly up from the previous year, but improved tax revenue and foreign exchange income enhanced debt repayment capacity [1][3] Group 4 - Three major international rating agencies upgraded Pakistan's credit rating at the start of the new fiscal year, although challenges remain due to flood damage to agriculture and infrastructure, geopolitical factors, and global trade uncertainties [2] - The State Bank forecasts GDP growth for the new fiscal year to be near the lower end of the previous estimate range of 3.25% to 4.25%, with the fiscal deficit potentially reaching 3.8% to 4.8% of GDP [2]