国际观察｜日元大幅贬值或加剧日本政策困境

Core Viewpoint - The significant depreciation of the yen may exacerbate Japan's policy dilemmas, particularly in managing inflation and economic growth under the new leadership of Prime Minister Sanna Takichi [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Following Takichi's election as the first female Prime Minister of Japan, expectations for aggressive fiscal and monetary policies have surged, leading to a notable decline in the yen against major currencies [1]. - The Tokyo stock market has seen a rally, with the Nikkei index approaching the 50,000 mark, as investors adjust their strategies by buying stocks and selling yen, a phenomenon referred to as "Takichi trading" [1]. - Concerns have arisen that Takichi's potential interference with the Bank of Japan's decisions could delay interest rate hikes and hinder monetary policy normalization, contributing to the yen's depreciation [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Impact - Japan has experienced persistent inflation, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for 48 consecutive months, and the CPI growth rate exceeding 3% for seven months from January to July this year [2]. - Takichi's proposed policies, including tax cuts on gasoline and diesel, aim to address rising prices but may contradict the goal of controlling inflation, as fiscal expansion could further stimulate price increases [2][3]. - The depreciation of the yen and rising import prices are expected to squeeze consumer purchasing power, particularly affecting those without financial assets, as real wages have been declining for eight consecutive months [3].