碳酸锂价格4个月涨幅超20%！业内人士咋看？

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market has seen a price rebound, rising from 60,000 yuan per ton to over 70,000 yuan, marking a significant change after a prolonged downturn [1][2] - Analysts express mixed feelings about the rebound, with some viewing it as a "dramatic reversal" while others remain cautious about the sustainability of the price increase [2][5] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 73,200 yuan on October 17, reflecting a 22.23% increase from the low of 59,000 yuan in late June [2] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics have improved, with supply tightening due to new policies that classify lithium as a strategic mineral, leading to increased production costs [3][4] - A significant reduction in lithium supply has been noted, with China cutting 47,000 tons this year, impacting key projects [3] - Demand for lithium carbonate remains stable, supported by government initiatives to boost electric vehicle sales, which are expected to drive demand further [3][4] Group 3 - Domestic lithium carbonate inventories have decreased significantly, dropping by approximately 21,000 tons (nearly 50%) since June, reaching a low for the year [4] - Despite the recent price increase, industry experts caution that the fundamental issue of oversupply remains unresolved, and the market may still face challenges [5][6] - Long-term demand for lithium is projected to remain strong, but supply increases planned by producers from 2025 to 2028 may exceed market needs, leading to potential oversupply [6]