Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a cooling trend since late September, influenced by profit-taking and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, but overall valuation remains attractive compared to global standards [1][4]. Market Performance - As of Wednesday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3913.76, down 0.1% from the previous day but up 0.8% since September 30. The index has gained 15.8% year-to-date, with a notable 25.4% increase from April 8 to September 30 [1]. Trade Tensions - The U.S.-China trade conflict has entered a new phase, with the 90-day tariff truce set to expire in November, leading to intensified negotiations and potential tariff increases from both sides [2][5]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various imports effective October 1, and further tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods may be implemented as early as November 1, causing significant market volatility [2][6]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that investors have gained experience from previous trade conflicts, leading to a more measured response to current developments. The market's reaction is expected to be less panicked compared to earlier in the year [3][5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term disruptions, analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believe that the long-term upward trend of the A-share market remains intact, supported by China's industrial advantages and domestic demand potential [4]. - The ongoing trade tensions may accelerate a shift in global supply chains from a cost-first approach to prioritizing safety and stability, impacting global trade dynamics [6]. Structural Opportunities - The current trade environment is expected to create structural investment opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in sectors focused on import substitution and domestic demand stimulation [6].
关税扰动不改A股中长期上行趋势，中国资产重估仍在延续