Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by various geopolitical factors, including trade issues between the US and China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the situation in the Middle East, alongside concerns about the US government shutdown impacting economic outlooks [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 22, 2025, the spot gold price is trading at $4091.02 per ounce, with a decline of 0.78% from the previous day, having reached a high of $4161.17 and a low of $4003.58 [2][3]. - The recent sell-off in the gold market was the most severe in years, attributed to profit-taking after significant price increases and a retreat in market sentiment, although banks remain optimistic about gold's performance in the coming year [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The end of the Diwali festival in India has led to a decrease in physical demand for gold, contributing to the recent price drop [3]. - Reports indicate that the US is nearing a trade agreement with India, potentially lowering tariffs to the 15%-16% range, which may signal a reduction in risk aversion in the market [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The absence of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report due to the US government shutdown has created uncertainty, making it easier for speculative funds to concentrate in one direction, leading to extreme positioning [3][4]. - Traders are using options to hedge against potential volatility, as implied volatility has surged to its highest level since March 2022, indicating heightened expectations for price fluctuations [4]. Group 4: Silver Market Insights - Silver has shown even more dramatic price movements than gold, with a significant outflow of silver inventory reported in Shanghai and New York, leading to a price drop of up to 8.7% in a single trading session [4]. - A historical squeeze in the London market has driven silver prices above the previous record set in 1980, as traders moved physical silver to alleviate supply shortages [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserve assets and reducing reliance on the US dollar, which could support a bullish trend in gold prices [5][6]. - Retail investors are actively investing in gold ETFs, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices as they seek to capitalize on the current market momentum [6]. Group 6: Technical Analysis - Recent technical analysis indicates that gold prices have reached a critical support level around 4083, with resistance at 4190 and a potential maximum pressure point at 4239.70 [7]. - The price action suggests a bullish outlook as long as gold remains above the identified support level, with the market closely monitoring the upper resistance created by the upward channel and the 10-day moving average [7].
10月22日金市晚评：黄金反弹遇CFTC数据缺失 牛市能否延续？
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-22 09:55