Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-22 11:13Core Viewpoint - The intensifying US-China tech rivalry is shifting from chip restrictions to a strategic competition over rare earth resources [1][3] Group 1: Company Impact - Micron Technology plans to exit the Chinese data center server chip business, following Nvidia's similar move, highlighting the escalation of the US-China tech conflict [2][3] - Micron's revenue from mainland China was approximately $3.4 billion, accounting for 12% of its total global revenue [5] - The exit is seen as a business adjustment, but it is significantly influenced by China's new rare earth export regulations [6] Group 2: Industry Implications - China's Ministry of Commerce has implemented strict controls on rare earth exports, requiring approval for any products containing Chinese rare earth materials or technologies [6] - This policy affects not only rare earth materials but also processing equipment, technical personnel, and the entire supply chain, impacting the global chip industry [6] - TSMC is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on heavy rare earth materials for its advanced 3nm process technology, which could lead to a rapid decline in production yield if supply is restricted [7] - ASML, a Dutch lithography giant, is also affected as its EUV lithography machines depend heavily on rare earth materials sourced from China [9] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China controls 90% of the global rare earth refining capacity, while Western countries lag in rare earth development and technology [9] - The rare earth resources have become a key leverage point for China in the US-China tech war, as the US attempts to cut off China's chip development through technology restrictions [9][13] - The G7 finance ministers reached a consensus on reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths, but achieving this goal in the short term is challenging due to the complexity of refining technologies [10][11] - Countries like Australia and the US are trying to accelerate rare earth resource development, but effective production capacity is unlikely to materialize quickly [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Micron's exit is a microcosm of the broader US-China tech conflict, with the escalation of rare earth policies reshaping the global tech supply chain [13] - China is transitioning from a "role player" in the supply chain to a dominant force capable of altering the rules of global tech competition [13] - The deepening of rare earth policies will complicate the trajectory of the US-China tech war and lead to profound changes in the global tech industry [13]