与14年前相比，这轮黄金牛市有何相似之处？｜市场观察

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices do not indicate the end of the current bull market, as the long-term trend for gold remains positive despite short-term volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices rose over 30% within two months starting from late August 2025, reaching nearly $4,382 per ounce by October 20, marking a 170% increase over the past two years [1]. - Historical comparison shows that in 2011, gold also experienced a similar surge of about 30% over two months, driven by the European debt crisis, with prices peaking at $1,921 per ounce [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The current bull market is influenced by factors such as the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, and the possible resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [2][3]. - Both the 2011 and 2025 bull markets are characterized by significant monetary policy actions, including the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) in 2011 and a new rate-cutting cycle in 2025 [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Short-term volatility in gold prices is seen as normal and does not necessarily signify the end of the bull market, with central banks accelerating gold purchases enhancing its value as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The current bull market is supported by the weakening credit of the U.S. dollar and the global high debt environment, which bolster gold's role as a store of value [2][3].