Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-22 12:35Industry Changes - NV has revised its order for 1.6T modules for next year from several million to 15 million units, driven by higher-than-expected demand for Rubin and GB300, with a reasonable estimate of 15 million 1.6T and 3 million 800G modules based on current Cowos capacity [1] - AWS has increased its order for 800G modules from approximately 6 million to 12 million units, corresponding to over 3 million Trainium chips and some externally sourced chips [1] Industry Demand - Customer demand has been significantly revised upwards, with total demand projected to reach 21 million 1.6T and over 48 million 800G units by 2026, although there will be a supply gap for light sources and silicon photonic chips [2] - Actual shipments for 2026 are expected to be 17 million 1.6T and 4.37 million 800G units [2] Key Companies - Zhongji Xuchuang: Fully covers major overseas clients, recent order increases will benefit the company, leading in silicon photonics capabilities, with further focus on scale-up and OCS incremental demand in 2027 [3] - Xinyi Sheng: Orders from mainstream overseas new clients are continuously increasing, leading in LPO, with accelerated penetration of silicon photonics [3] - Yuanjie Technology: Global CW light sources are in continuous shortage, the company is expected to benefit significantly from high industry prosperity over the next three years as a domestic leader in breaking through overseas supply chains for laser devices, granting it a high valuation [3] - Tianfu: Holds a significant share in the NV 1.6T industry chain with high elasticity, future focus on breakthroughs in active module business to drive revenue [3]