与14年前相比，这轮黄金牛市有何相似之处？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices and mining stocks has raised questions about the end of the current gold bull market, but industry experts believe that short-term fluctuations do not indicate a long-term trend reversal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices rose over 30% from late August to October 20, 2025, reaching nearly $4,382 per ounce, marking a 170% increase over the past two years [1]. - Historical comparisons show that in 2011, gold also surged approximately 30% in two months, driven by the European debt crisis, before hitting a peak of $1,921 per ounce [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current gold bull market shares similarities with the 2011 bull market, including drivers such as geopolitical tensions, inflation threats, and significant increases in gold holdings by central banks [2][3]. - Recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to potential resolutions in geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the easing of U.S. trade tensions, alongside technical corrections due to prior rapid price increases [2][3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the core logic supporting the current gold bull market remains intact, with expectations for gold prices to continue reaching new highs in the medium to long term [2][3]. - The current market dynamics are influenced by the weakening of the dollar's credit amid high global debt levels, alongside central banks' monetary easing policies aimed at countering economic downturns [3].