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行情步入慢牛,外资巨头集体发声
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-10-22 13:21

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a slow bull market, with major indices expected to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a 5%-10% upward adjustment in valuations [1][3][4] Group 1: Goldman Sachs Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the MSCI China Index has rebounded 80% from its 2022 low, despite experiencing four significant pullbacks [3] - The firm identifies four key supports for the bull market: favorable policies, accelerated economic growth, low valuations, and strong capital inflows [3][4] - The investment strategy should shift from "selling high" to "buying low" as the bull market unfolds [4] Group 2: JPMorgan Insights - JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on the CSI 300 Index, expecting a shift in asset allocation towards equities as residents increasingly invest in the stock market [5][6] - The firm highlights "anti-involution" and service consumption as key investment themes, with potential for an 18-24 month investment cycle [6][7] - JPMorgan notes that effective policy implementation could enhance corporate earnings and cash flows, stabilizing market expectations for the CSI 300 Index [7] Group 3: UBS Insights - UBS analysts observe a recent shift from technology growth to value dividends in the A-share market, driven by trade tensions and profit-taking [8][9] - Despite short-term fluctuations, UBS believes that growth style will remain the main investment theme in the medium term [9][10] - The firm suggests that investing in the ChiNext board offers favorable risk-reward ratios, while small-cap stocks may face challenges in generating excess returns [10]