【环球财经】印尼央行意外维持利率不变 未来仍存降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly paused its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark rate at 4.75% to prioritize currency stability over further economic stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The seven-day reverse repo rate remains at 4.75%, the lowest level since October 2022, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September last year [1] - The decision to hold rates steady aligns with the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and assess the effects of previous rate cuts [1][2] - The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the rupiah amid global uncertainties, despite a 2.90% decline year-to-date [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflation rate in Indonesia rose to 2.65% in September, the highest since May 2024, but remains within the central bank's target range [2] - The central bank and government are collaborating to support economic growth, with GDP growth expected to remain below the country's output potential until 2026 [2] - The central bank anticipates that economic growth will slightly exceed the forecast range of 4.6%-5.4% in 2025, with stronger growth expected next year [2] Group 3: Government Stimulus and Credit Growth - The Indonesian government has launched two stimulus packages totaling $2.8 billion, including cash transfers, food assistance, and employment programs [3] - The finance minister has transferred $12 billion from the central bank to state-owned banks to expand credit [3] - Loan growth in September accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year, the highest level since June, although overall credit demand remains weak due to cautious corporate behavior and high loan rates [3]