受冬储需求增强等因素影响 环渤海动力煤价格延续上涨态势

Core Insights - The Qinhuangdao coal price index for thermal coal has risen to 684 RMB/ton, increasing by 4 RMB/ton week-on-week, marking four consecutive weeks of price increases [1] - Factors supporting the strong performance of coal prices include expectations of increased winter storage demand and high shipping costs, despite a slight stabilization in market sentiment due to the end of high temperatures in southern regions [1][2] Supply Factors - Rainfall impacts in coal-producing areas have largely dissipated, allowing for a gradual recovery in coal production; however, stricter safety inspections in major production areas have led to some coal mines being forced to halt or reduce production [1] - The rising prices at production sites have resulted in a situation where port prices are generally lower than production prices, leading to supply chain inefficiencies and high costs, which are significant support factors for coastal coal prices [1] Demand Factors - Although daily consumption at terminal power plants has decreased following the end of high temperatures, it remains at a higher level compared to the same period last year, with terminal inventories approximately 6% lower year-on-year [1] - The transition between peak and off-peak seasons is accelerating, with winter storage demand beginning to be released; additionally, the outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has decreased by about 50%, leading to average hydropower conditions, which benefits thermal power generation [1] Market Dynamics - As coal prices continue to rise, the willingness of downstream buyers to accept higher prices has decreased, leading to a slight slowdown in market trading activity; however, due to various supportive factors, there are currently no low-price sales in the market, and coastal coal prices continue to rise [1][2]