Warner Stock Up 91%. Antitrust To Hit $WBD Bids By Paramount, Comcast

Core Insights - Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is exploring the sale of smaller assets to avoid a breakup, with its stock up 91% this year and potential for a further 50% increase to a market cap of $75 billion [2][3] - The company has rejected two takeover offers from Paramount and is now considering strategic alternatives, indicating a likelihood of being sold in parts [4][8] - The potential acquirers include Netflix, Paramount, and Comcast, each facing unique antitrust challenges that could impact their bids [5][7] Company Overview - WBD is a major player in streaming, film production, and cable, with 116.9 million streaming subscribers and a reach of 1.1 billion global viewers [6] - The company is burdened with $34.6 billion in debt and is experiencing a decline in linear TV viewership, making a sale more appealing [7] Potential Bidders and Antitrust Issues - Netflix: Faces a 50% to 60% chance of approval for a bid, but would likely not acquire all assets due to financial constraints. Antitrust concerns arise from a combined streaming market share of 35% to 40%, which could be mitigated by content licensing agreements [5][11][13] - Paramount: Has a 30% to 40% chance of approval, but would need significant funding and could face high antitrust risks due to market concentration, requiring divestitures of $15 billion to $20 billion [5][14][16] - Comcast: Less than a 10% chance of approval due to high antitrust risks associated with vertical integration and previous regulatory blocks on similar mergers. Required divestitures could exceed $50 billion [5][17][19] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are divided on the likelihood of a Paramount bid succeeding, with some suggesting it remains the most credible option while others express skepticism about Paramount's standalone future [20][21][22] - Amazon and Apple are also mentioned as potential bidders, indicating a competitive landscape for WBD's assets [20]