Phillips 66(US:PSX) ZACKS·2025-10-22 15:07Core Viewpoint - Phillips 66 is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $2.81 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +37.8%, while revenues are projected to be $29.92 billion, down 17.3% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 20% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, suggesting a favorable outlook, but the lack of a positive Earnings ESP makes it challenging to predict a consensus EPS beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Phillips 66 exceeded the expected earnings of $1.66 per share by delivering $2.38, resulting in a surprise of +43.37% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Market Reaction Considerations - An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [15]. - While betting on stocks expected to beat earnings can increase success odds, Phillips 66 does not currently appear to be a compelling earnings-beat candidate [17].