Top analyst says China is playing a ‘key role’ in the price of gold going through the roof, and he’s got the data to prove it

Core Insights - China is a significant driver of gold prices reaching record highs in 2025, influenced by central bank purchases, arbitrage trading, and increased household demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][4] - The global economic backdrop, characterized by uncertainty, is leading central banks to accumulate more gold than U.S. dollars, the traditional reserve currency [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central bank buying in China has been a key factor in the rise of gold prices, with the People's Bank of China marking its 11th consecutive month of purchases in September 2025 [4] - Gold prices experienced a notable slump of 6.3% after reaching a peak of $4,381.52 an ounce, indicating market volatility amid a strengthening dollar [2] - Despite the recent downturn, gold remains up over 55% year-to-date, reflecting its status as a safe asset during economic corrections [2] Group 2: Price Projections - Gold's price surged by 50% in 2025, crossing the $4,000 per ounce mark due to geopolitical tensions and trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China [3] - Analysts predict that if current trends continue, gold could reach $5,000 by 2026 and potentially $10,000 by 2028, driven by inflation concerns and systemic instability in fiat currencies [3] Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - The reported gold reserves of China reached 2,264 tonnes by mid-2025, with indications that actual holdings may be higher due to underreporting strategies [4] - The consistent buying by the People's Bank of China establishes a price floor for gold, encouraging both institutional and private investors to increase their demand [4]