光伏行业迈上由大到强之路

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's photovoltaic industry has transformed from "policy-driven" to "grid parity," establishing a global leadership position through comprehensive breakthroughs in installed capacity, technological iteration, scenario integration, and grid collaboration [1] Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry in China has achieved significant improvements in scale and efficiency across the entire supply chain, establishing an absolute competitive advantage globally [2] - China has formed the most complete photovoltaic industry chain globally, covering all major segments from industrial silicon to system integration and product application, with several world-class leading enterprises in each segment [2] Production Capacity and Market Share - In terms of polysilicon, global production capacity increased from 774,000 tons in 2021 to 3,394,000 tons in 2024, with China's share exceeding 95% [2] - For silicon wafers, China's production capacity reached 96.7% of the global total by 2024, with a production volume of 775.8 GW, representing 96.6% of global output [3] - In the battery segment, China's production capacity accounted for 91.3% of the global total in 2024, with a production share of 92.3% [3] - In modules, China's share of global production capacity reached 83.3% and production share reached 86.4% by 2024 [3] Technological Advancements - China's photovoltaic industry has accelerated technological innovation, developing various crystalline silicon battery technologies, including AL-BSF, PERC, TOPCon, and HJT, with significant improvements in conversion efficiency [4] - By 2024, n-type battery technology has matured, with market shares of 71.1% for n-type TOPCon batteries and 25.6% for heterojunction batteries, while PERC's market share has declined to 20.5% [5] Installed Capacity Growth - China's photovoltaic power generation industry has experienced exponential growth, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 1,110 GW by July 2025, accounting for 30% of the national total [7] - New installed capacity surged to 223.25 GW by July 2025, more than double the amount added in the same period in 2024 [7] - The growth trend shows a significant acceleration, with 2024 witnessing a record addition of 278 GW [7] Application and Integration - The photovoltaic industry has diversified its applications, integrating with agriculture, aquaculture, and industrial sectors, enhancing land utilization and contributing to ecological restoration [10] - By the end of 2024, cumulative photovoltaic power generation reached 30,962 billion kWh, significantly reducing carbon emissions [10] Economic Impact - The photovoltaic industry has generated over one trillion yuan in annual output value and created over one million jobs, with China's share of the global photovoltaic workforce at 46% [11] - Investment in manufacturing equipment reached approximately 723.2 billion yuan, with total investment in installed capacity reaching 35,977.8 billion yuan by 2024 [11] Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is undergoing a fourth adjustment cycle, with strong policy guidance needed to address low-level competition and promote product quality [12] - The transition to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy marks a significant shift in the industry [12] Future Outlook - To achieve high-quality development, China's photovoltaic industry must shift from a focus on product and capacity output to technology, standards, and comprehensive solutions [14] - The industry is expected to deepen integration with energy storage, hydrogen energy, and digital technologies, enhancing its core competitiveness [15]