明年全球贸易前景不容乐观 贸易增速或降至0.5%

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report indicates that while global trade showed strong performance in the first half of the year, the outlook for the second half and into 2026 is pessimistic due to rising tariffs and increased trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Global Trade Performance - Global merchandise trade volume is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, but the growth rate is expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainty [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports surged beyond expectations as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of future tariff increases, leading to a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade volume [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods grew by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other goods and becoming a key driver of trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and includes contributions from both developed and emerging markets, with East Asia remaining a major supply chain hub [3] Group 3: Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from the double-digit growth seen in 2023 and 2024, with expectations of continued deceleration due to global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite the current slowdown, there is optimism for long-term growth in service trade, particularly as emerging markets develop and demand for digital services increases [4] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty impacts global trade by affecting business investment, consumer spending, supply chain stability, and trade costs, leading to a potential decline in trade growth [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Trade Development - To address the challenges facing global trade, measures such as enhancing trade policy transparency, coordinating trade policies, and supporting developing countries' trade competitiveness are recommended [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also suggested to facilitate trade and ensure sustainable growth [5]