世贸组织报告显示明年全球贸易前景不容乐观

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's latest report highlights the complexities and uncertainties facing global trade, predicting a strong performance in the first half of the year but a bleak outlook for the second half and into 2026 [1] Trade Volume and Growth Forecast - Global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, with a significant slowdown to 0.5% in 2026, primarily due to trade policy uncertainties [2] - In the first half of 2025, U.S. companies engaged in stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising tariffs, leading to an unexpected surge in imports, particularly in machinery, equipment, and non-durable goods [2] - The short-term boost in global merchandise trade volume, which saw a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, is not sustainable, with North American trade flows expected to negatively impact growth in 2025 and 2026 [2] Artificial Intelligence Trade Growth - Trade in artificial intelligence-related goods saw a year-on-year increase of over 20% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing other categories and driving overall trade growth [3] - The growth in AI-related trade is attributed to investments in digital infrastructure and is not limited to developed countries, with emerging markets also playing a crucial role [3] - AI technology is reshaping trade dynamics by enhancing innovation and industrial upgrades, allowing emerging markets to better participate in international trade [3] Service Trade Trends - Global service trade grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from previous years, with expectations of continued deceleration due to economic growth slowdowns and geopolitical tensions [4] - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for service trade remains optimistic, particularly with the rise of digital services as emerging markets develop economically [4] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policy uncertainties are impacting global trade by affecting corporate investment, consumer spending, and supply chain stability, leading to increased costs [4] - The report emphasizes the need for transparent and coordinated trade policies to enhance business confidence and promote trade investment [5] Recommendations for Trade Development - The report suggests several measures to address current trade challenges, including enhancing policy transparency, coordinating trade policies, and supporting developing countries to improve their trade competitiveness [5] - Promoting digital economy development and green trade initiatives are also highlighted as essential for sustainable global trade growth [5]