金银高位巨震 是否已经见顶？

Core Viewpoint - Recent sharp declines in gold and silver prices follow a period of record highs, attributed to profit-taking from a technically overbought market and easing geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Price Movements - On October 21, London gold prices fell by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2013, and continued to decline on October 22, dropping approximately $370 from the historical high of $4381.484 per ounce [1][2]. - London silver prices also experienced a significant drop, falling below $50 per ounce on October 21, with a maximum daily decline of 8.72% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The surge in gold and silver prices since late August attracted substantial short-term speculative investments, leading to a crowded long position in the gold market [2]. - Analysts noted that the recent price volatility was primarily driven by profit-taking due to technical overbought conditions and the gradual digestion of previously bullish factors [2][3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in risk aversion related to U.S. regional banks contributed to the profit-taking behavior among short-term investors [2]. - The end of India's major festival, Diwali, which typically boosts silver demand, also played a role in the recent downturn in silver prices [3]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent corrections, analysts believe that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued upward pressure from global central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - The overall positioning in gold remains low, with retail investment in gold accounting for less than 2% of global assets, indicating potential for future growth [6]. - Silver is viewed positively due to its financial, industrial, and speculative attributes, suggesting opportunities for investment at lower price points [7].