博时基金2025年第四季度宏观策略报告

Market Overview - Global equity and bond markets experienced an overall increase in Q3 2025, with domestic indices like ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 leading the gains [1] - The A-share market showed strong performance, particularly in the technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, which rose by 37.2% and 27.1% respectively [1] - The trading logic for the market is influenced by reduced policy disturbances from the US government, alleviated growth and inflation concerns, and a favorable liquidity environment [1] Macro Analysis - The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a significant decrease from the nearly 3% growth rate of the previous three years, but still away from recession [2] - Inflation in the US remains under control, with the core PCE expected to rise moderately starting mid-2025 [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to support economic resilience in the US [3] Chinese Economy - Domestic demand has weakened, while external demand remains stable, with industrial output growth slowing in July and August [4] - Fixed asset investment shows stable demand, but new home sales are still poor, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased [5] - Inflation in China is showing signs of improvement, with PPI declines expected to narrow [6] Asset Analysis - Bond yields have risen significantly in Q3, driven by pressures on the liability side, with long-term rates increasing more than short-term rates [7] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals after the release of liability pressures [7] - The credit environment remains relatively loose, with a slight increase in social financing growth [6] A-share Market - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant capital inflows and a focus on the technology TMT sector [11] - Earnings expectations for Q3 are stable, but there may be high base pressure in Q4 [11] - The overall market valuation has exceeded historical averages, indicating potential volatility [11] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to overweight equities while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds, focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as AI and semiconductors [15] - For bonds, a balanced approach is suggested, with an emphasis on short to medium-term high-yield options [16] - In the A-share market, a more balanced allocation strategy is advised, considering the recent significant gains [17]