国际金价：“真摔”还是“假跌”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly $300 to $4,082 per ounce, is attributed to profit-taking after a significant increase of 66% this year and 170% since the end of 2022, raising concerns about whether this marks a healthy correction or the end of the current bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a historic surge, reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce before the recent drop, which is the largest single-day decline since 2013 [1]. - Silver prices also fell sharply, decreasing by 7.5% to $48.37 per ounce on the same day [1]. - The recent upward trend in gold prices was driven by geopolitical uncertainties, continuous purchases by global central banks, and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Decline - Short-term weakening of safe-haven demand contributed to the price drop, influenced by optimistic signs in international trade and reduced geopolitical risk concerns [2]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, has led to predictions of a potential resolution, further boosting market optimism [2]. - A stronger U.S. dollar, which rose by 0.34% to 98.98, also pressured gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for investors holding other currencies [2]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Most analysts believe that gold's status as a traditional safe-haven asset will persist, suggesting that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short term [3]. - Key factors supporting gold prices, such as geopolitical uncertainties, economic slowdown risks, and central bank buying demand, have not fundamentally reversed [3]. - However, there are concerns about speculative trading influencing gold's volatility, indicating that significant price fluctuations may continue in the future [3].