PTA：供需预期偏弱但油价短期走强 PTA短期受到提振

Market Overview - On October 22, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis remained weak, and some mainstream suppliers were making sales, while trading discussions were the main focus, resulting in acceptable transaction volumes. October cargo was traded at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations around 4340-4400. For November, transaction volumes increased, with trades at a discount of -80 and -70 for the first and second halves, respectively. The mainstream spot basis was at -88 [1]. Profitability - As of October 22, the PTA spot processing fee was around 95 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 235 yuan/ton and 257 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 22, the price of polyester yarn showed mixed trends, with sales volume increasing towards the end of the day. Raw material prices rose, but yarn prices saw limited increases, with some downstream sectors replenishing stock. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY remains at a loss. The arrival of cold air has supported the "Silver October" sales, with winter clothing sales starting. Future attention will be on raw material trends [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent production of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, short-term PTA may be supported by the rebound in oil prices and improved supply-demand expectations for raw material PX. The strategy suggests a low-level short position and a rolling reverse spread for TA1-5 [4].