中国汽车工程学会：预计2040年新能源汽车市场渗透率将超80％

Core Insights - The new "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" aims for over 80% penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China's market by 2040, positioning the country among the world's automotive powerhouses [1][6] - The roadmap emphasizes sustainable development of energy-saving vehicles, iterative upgrades of NEVs, and the evolution of intelligent connected vehicles, structured into a comprehensive framework of one main report, five technology groups, and 26 specialized topics [1][6] Group 1: Key Developments - The roadmap focuses on the electrification, intelligence, and low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry, highlighting the dual emphasis on product technology and manufacturing technology as driving forces this year [3] - Key technological milestones include the anticipated small-scale application of solid-state batteries by 2030 and large-scale global promotion by 2035, with improvements in performance, cost, and environmental adaptability to meet consumer needs [3][4] - In the commercial vehicle sector, fuel cells are identified as a crucial solution for achieving low carbon emissions, with projections of reaching a scale of 4 to 5 million vehicles by 2040 [4] Group 2: Historical Context - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" has been updated previously in 2016 and 2020, with the 3.0 version emphasizing foresight and leadership, grounded in China's diverse innovation scenarios, open market environment, and increasingly robust policy support [6]