最后两个月，LPR会不会调降？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the possibility of lowering the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) in 2025 is low, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, remaining unchanged for five consecutive months [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that banks are likely to avoid lowering the LPR this year to protect their interest margins and reduce asset reallocation pressure [1] - The likelihood of LPR being lowered in November and December is historically low, as the primary goal of such a move is to stimulate credit demand, which may not be significant in Q4 of this year [1] Group 2 - ZheShang Securities indicates that external uncertainties and structural contradictions in domestic demand and supply necessitate a moderately loose monetary policy to counter economic downturn pressures [1] - The overall monetary policy for 2025 is expected to maintain a loose tone, with a forecast of a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the end of Q4 [1] - According to the interest rate transmission mechanism, if the central bank lowers the RRR or interest rates, it may lead to a decrease in LPR quotes due to a more relaxed funding environment for banks [2] Group 3 - The current stable bank interest margins and solid fundamentals present a good opportunity for investment, with low valuation levels [2] - The Bank ETF (515020) tracking the CSI Bank Index has seen a noticeable trend of net inflows for five consecutive trading days, indicating strong capital inflow [2]