中邮证券：大模型APP成AI时代第一个爆款 下一轮竞争核心将聚焦用户积累与平台化转型

Core Insights - The dual-driven model of "ToC branding and ToB business" is emerging as an industry consensus, emphasizing user acquisition and retention as key to platform transformation and growth [1][2] Group 1: OpenAI's Transformation - OpenAI is evolving from a product-centric company to a platform-centric one, aiming to become the "Windows of the AI era" by integrating with the semiconductor supply chain to create a monopoly [2] - OpenAI's revenue is projected to reach $200 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 92% from 2024 to 2030, driven by enhanced external collaborations and diversified revenue streams [2] Group 2: Domestic Internet Landscape - Domestic players like ByteDance and Tencent are intensifying competition for user entry points and ecosystem dominance, with ByteDance's Doubao and Tencent's Yuanbao making significant strides in user growth [3] - Doubao's MAU reached 1.50 million and 0.86 million for its app and web versions respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.44% and 14.14% [3] - Tencent's Yuanbao is leveraging the recent surge in AI applications to boost its user base, indicating a strategic shift towards platformization [3] Group 3: Industry Evolution - The core value of large models is shifting from being "disruptors" to "enablers," with a focus on collaborative ecosystems as the optimal path for platform evolution [4] - The collaboration between leading firms like OpenAI and application companies is expanding the AI market, transitioning from singular technological breakthroughs to comprehensive ecosystem reconstruction [4] - The stock performance of companies collaborating with OpenAI reflects strong investor confidence in the synergistic business models emerging from these partnerships [4]