日本央行加息预期大幅推迟至年末，高市早苗上任成关键变量

Core Viewpoint - The expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have significantly decreased following the election of Prime Minister Sanna Takagi, with most economists now predicting a potential hike in December rather than in the immediate future [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Only about 10% of economists expect a rate hike at the upcoming October 30 meeting, a sharp decline from 36% in the previous survey [1]. - December is now the most anticipated month for a rate hike, with 50% of economists predicting action then, followed by 38% expecting a hike in January [1]. - The median forecast for the terminal rate of the current rate hike cycle is now expected to be 1%, indicating two more hikes, down from a previous expectation of 1.25% [4]. Group 2: Political Influence - The election of Prime Minister Sanna Takagi, known for advocating monetary easing, has led to a more cautious approach regarding rate hikes, with 72% of respondents indicating that Japan's unstable political situation reduces the likelihood of a hike this month [4]. - Economists believe that under Takagi's leadership, the Bank of Japan will need to communicate more carefully with the government regarding rate hikes [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Market expectations for a policy adjustment this month are hovering around 10%, a stark contrast to the 95% expectation seen before the January rate hike [5]. - The Bank of Japan faces the challenge of maintaining market expectations for a rate hike to prevent further depreciation of the yen, which recently fell to an eight-month low against the dollar [8]. - There is a focus on whether the Bank of Japan can convey a "hawkish hold" stance to avoid excessive yen depreciation while minimizing friction with the Takagi government [8].