Sugar Prices Plunge on Prospects of Robust Global Supplies

Core Insights - Sugar prices have experienced a significant decline, with NY Sugar closing down 3.05% and London sugar down 3.02%, reaching multi-year lows due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [1][2] Supply Outlook - Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to increase by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Unica reported a 10.8% year-on-year increase in Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September, totaling 3.137 MMT [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] India’s Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline of 17.5% in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, potentially reaching 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]