Grains in Q3- Can the Price Weakness Continue?

Core Insights - The grain and oilseed sector experienced widespread price declines in Q3 2025, with soybean meal futures falling by 2.06% and soybean oil by 6.93% [1]. - Despite the bearish trend in soybean prices, there is potential for future price increases due to rising global demand and production cost pressures [3][4]. Soybean Market - Soybean meal futures settled at $265.70 per ton, while soybean oil settled at 48.87 cents per pound as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - Over the first nine months of 2025, soybean meal prices declined by 13.66%, whereas soybean oil prices increased by 22.85% [1]. - Nearby soybean futures settled at $10.0175 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a slight increase to $10.2750 in mid-October [2]. Corn Market - Nearby CBOT corn futures declined by 1.19% in Q3 2025 and were down 9.38% over the first nine months of 2025 [6]. - Corn futures settled at $4.1550 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a marginal increase to $4.2050 in mid-October [7]. Wheat Market - Nearby soft red winter wheat futures fell by 3.92% in Q3 2025 and were down 7.89% over the first nine months of 2025 [8]. - KCBT hard red winter wheat futures declined by 1.63% in Q3 2025, settling at $4.9775 per bushel on September 30, 2025 [10]. - Nearby MGE spring wheat futures decreased by 6.67% in Q3 2025, settling at $5.6275 per bushel [11]. Other Grains - Oat futures saw a significant decline of 20.49% in Q3 2025, settling at $3.0750 per bushel [12]. - Rough rice futures dropped by 13.82% in Q3 2025, settling at $11.165 per cwt [13]. Market Outlook - The grain and oilseed prices are expected to remain bearish in Q4 2025 due to sufficient crop yields meeting global demand [14]. - The lack of USDA data due to a government shutdown may hinder market transparency, but robust supplies suggest limited downside potential for prices [16]. - The cyclical nature of agricultural commodities indicates that current low prices may discourage production, potentially leading to higher prices in the future [16].