TrendForce集邦咨询：预估11月-12月硅料价格将保持“有价无市”的高位持稳局面

Core Viewpoint - Despite the intention of silicon material companies to raise prices due to storage expectations and price control policies, actual transaction prices have not increased, and a cautious purchasing approach is expected from downstream buyers as the domestic off-season approaches. It is anticipated that silicon material prices will remain stable at high levels with limited market activity from November to December [1][2]. Silicon Material - Current overall inventory in the industry is over 420,000 tons, with a continuing trend of accumulation due to high inventory levels at downstream crystal pulling factories and rising expectations of silicon wafer price declines, leading to cautious purchasing strategies [2]. - Major producers in Sichuan and Yunnan plan to halt production in November, while new capacity from Xinte Energy is ramping up, but the incremental output is insufficient to offset the reductions from leading producers. Overall output of silicon material is expected to decrease by approximately 10,000 tons month-on-month in November [2]. Silicon Wafer - Current silicon wafer inventory is around 20 GW, with an increase of approximately 10 million pieces week-on-week. Downstream purchasing willingness is generally low, and integrated companies primarily focus on silicon material processing, leading to a slight decline in direct procurement demand [3]. - The pricing strategy among silicon wafer companies is diverging under current market pressures. Leading companies maintain firm pricing due to price control guidance, while second and third-tier companies continue to sell at lower prices to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in an overall downward shift in transaction prices [3]. Battery Cells - Current battery inventory remains at around 5-7 days, with a structural differentiation continuing. Inventory is primarily concentrated in 210RN, while 183N sizes are seeing an increase in inventory due to a decline in demand from India. The 210N size has very low inventory due to strong phase demand [4]. - Prices for 183N batteries have begun to decline due to increased low-price orders following reduced demand from India. The 210RN price is expected to stabilize at low levels due to high inventory, while the 210N price may see slight increases due to delivery expectations from a few concentrated domestic projects [4]. Photovoltaic Modules - Terminal demand for modules is weak, primarily driven by a small number of domestic concentrated projects, with relatively low demand for distributed and overseas projects. Demand for 720W modules in domestic concentrated projects remains strong, with prices generally rising to above 0.7 RMB/W and good transaction conditions [5]. - Conventional module inventories remain high, and with weak demand, prices are concentrated around 0.65-0.68 RMB/W, leading to difficulties in sales. Overall, the weak terminal demand suggests that module companies may face insufficient order reserves, putting downward pressure on prices across the entire industry chain [5].