总库存处于历史偏低的水平 沥青期货价格震荡上行

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in asphalt futures prices indicates a potential upward trend in the market, driven by various factors including supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical influences [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement - On October 23, asphalt futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3300.00 yuan, with a current price of 3280.00 yuan, reflecting a 2.40% increase [1] - Institutions predict that asphalt prices may continue to rise in the short term, with expectations of a strong market [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current social inventory rate for asphalt is 32.06%, a decrease of 0.58% week-on-week, while the total inventory level at domestic refineries is 29.81%, an increase of 0.47% [2] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants is at 36.58%, up by 0.42% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in production capacity [2] - Weather conditions in northern regions are negatively impacting demand, while southern regions show limited consumption capacity despite favorable weather [2] Group 3: Cost Factors - International oil prices have shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support asphalt costs, alleviating some market pessimism [2][3] - The production capacity has been affected by several refineries undergoing maintenance, leading to a decrease in supply pressure [3] - Continuous reduction in both asphalt plant and social inventories has resulted in total stocks being at historically low levels, indicating an improvement in supply-demand balance [3]