博时基金2025年第四季度宏观策略报告：A股震荡上行，结构上建议均衡配置

Market Overview - In Q3 2025, both domestic and international equity markets experienced overall growth, with notable increases in the ChiNext and STAR Market indices in China, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices overseas [2] - The A-share market saw significant leadership from the technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with respective increases of 37.2% and 27.1% [2] - The trading logic for the market is influenced by reduced policy disturbances from the US government, alleviated growth and inflation concerns, and a favorable liquidity environment [2] Macro Analysis - The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a decline from the previous three-year average of nearly 3%, but still away from recession [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to improve financial conditions, supporting a narrative of economic resilience [4] - Domestic demand in China has weakened, with industrial output growth slowing and retail sales growth declining to 3.4% year-on-year by August [5] Asset Analysis - Bond yields have risen significantly in Q3, driven by pressures on the liability side, with long-term rates increasing more than short-term rates [8] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals after the release of liability pressures [8] - The current environment suggests a focus on mid-to-short-term high-yield bonds, while long-term opportunities remain uncertain [10] A-share Market - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the core focus on technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [12] - By the end of Q3, the valuation metrics for the A-share market indicated a high level, with the PE ratio exceeding the three-year average by two standard deviations [12] - Profit expectations for Q4 are under pressure due to high base effects from the previous year [12] Currency and Policy Environment - The RMB has maintained a strong position in Q3, with expectations for continued strength influenced by domestic monetary policy adjustments [13] - The external liquidity environment is favorable for domestic equity markets, although potential volatility remains due to changes in high-risk preference funding [14] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests an overweight in equities and a standard allocation to bonds, focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as AI and semiconductors [16] - The strategy emphasizes a balanced approach in asset allocation, particularly in light of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the implications of recent quarterly reports [18] - The focus should remain on high-growth sectors while being cautious of potential volatility in previously high-performing areas [18]