智通财经网·2025-10-23 06:14Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific Haitong maintains an "overweight" rating for GCL-Poly Energy (03800), projecting BPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.17, 1.22, and 1.28 CNY per share respectively, with a target price of 1.59 CNY based on a 1.2x PB for 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, GCL-Poly expects profits from its photovoltaic materials business to be approximately 9.6 billion CNY, including a post-tax gain of about 6.4 billion CNY from the sale of an affiliate [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period is estimated to be around 14.1 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 42.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2 CNY/kg [1] - As of October 15, the average price of granular silicon reached 50 CNY/kg, indicating potential upward movement compared to Q3 2025 prices [1] - Expectations for Q4 2025 and 2026 suggest that prices will likely remain stable with a potential upward trend, enhancing profitability in the granular silicon business [1] Group 3: Cost and Production - The average cash production cost for granular silicon in Q3 2025 was 24.16 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 1.15 CNY/kg from the previous quarter [2] - GCL-Poly's production capacity is aligned with national energy consumption standards, which are set to be enforced by September 2025 [2] Group 4: Strategic Moves - The company announced plans to use part of the proceeds from a recent subscription to acquire companies or assets within mainland China to increase granular silicon production capacity [2] - Industry consolidation is viewed as beneficial for achieving supply-demand balance, which may further stabilize and enhance prices [2]