韩国央行按兵不动 房地产过热与汇率压力制约宽松空间

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, a decision unanimously supported by its seven-member committee, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Since October 2024, the Bank of Korea has cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points to mitigate economic impacts from the previous administration's policies and international trade uncertainties [1]. - The recent rise in domestic real estate prices and the ongoing depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar have limited the scope for further monetary easing [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Seoul apartment prices are showing "structural resilience," and the proposed $350 billion investment fund between South Korea and the US may exacerbate the depreciation risk of the Korean won [1]. - The memory chip industry is experiencing a stronger-than-expected upward cycle, which also constrains the possibility of further monetary policy relaxation [1]. Group 3: Government Response - The current government has implemented its fourth set of housing market control measures within four months to address rapidly rising housing prices [1]. - Data indicates that the price-to-income ratio for apartments in Seoul has surpassed that of London and Sydney, highlighting the increasing severity of housing affordability issues [1]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Some analysts still anticipate that the Bank of Korea may lower interest rates again in November 2025, followed by a prolonged observation period for policy [2]. - There is a noticeable shift in the decision-makers' focus from solely supporting growth to balancing growth with financial stability risks, particularly in the context of a heated real estate market and external uncertainties [2].