Core Points - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a rapid increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [1][2] - The growth rate of the debt has accelerated significantly, with the time taken to increase from $30 trillion to $38 trillion being only three years, and the time to increase by $1 trillion now measured in months rather than years [3] - The current federal debt is 126.8% of GDP, exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 100% for developed economies, and is projected to reach 133% by 2035 without major reforms [3] Debt Sustainability Concerns - The high level of debt has raised market concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, especially in light of the recent government shutdown, which has intensified worries about economic impacts [4] - The ongoing political conflicts are expected to further damage the economy, making the current "borrow new to pay old" debt strategy increasingly difficult to maintain [4] Investor Behavior and Market Reactions - Investors are buying U.S. Treasuries driven by risk-averse sentiment, betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease tightening policies to support employment and mitigate economic downturn risks [6] - As of October 22, the 2-year Treasury yield reached a new low of 3.38%, while the 10-year yield was at 3.95%, indicating a trend towards lower yields amid economic uncertainty [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 95.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [7]
美国债务规模首破38万亿美元 增速创纪录同时美债收益率降至年内低位
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-23 06:41