韩国央行鸽声延续：维持利率不变 淡化11月降息预期

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea maintains the seven-day repurchase rate at 2.5%, signaling a cautious approach towards further easing despite previous rate cuts since October of the previous year [1][2] - The decision aligns with the expectations of 23 out of 25 surveyed economists, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance [1] - The central bank's forward guidance reflects increased concern for financial stability, with a shift from "5 support - 1 oppose" to "4 support - 2 oppose" among board members [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing rise in the real estate market, with apartment prices in the capital area increasing for 37 consecutive weeks, raises concerns among policymakers [2][3] - The central bank is cautious about the potential for financial instability due to rising mortgage debt levels and the real estate market's performance [3] - Recent measures introduced by the government aim to cool the housing market, including tightening mortgage limits and expanding regulatory areas [3] Group 3 - Inflation remains close to the central bank's target of 2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in September, suggesting some room for easing if conditions allow [4] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on key exports, particularly in the automotive sector, is being closely monitored, with estimates indicating a potential drag on economic growth [4] - The Bank of Korea has adjusted its growth forecast for the year from 0.8% to 0.9%, reflecting a cautious outlook amid external pressures [4] Group 4 - The central bank is also attentive to the Federal Reserve's actions, as any divergence in policy trajectories could lead to currency fluctuations [5][6] - Concerns regarding exchange rate volatility have increased, with some board members indicating that sustained fluctuations may hinder the ability to pursue further easing [6]