基本面弱现实的格局未变 甲醇盘面短期观望为主

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a significant increase, particularly in methanol futures, which closed at 2292.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.19% [1] Supply - Recent maintenance of some domestic facilities is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates. Notably, Iran's Marjan facility with a capacity of 1.65 million tons is currently offline, and Kavian's 2.3 million tons is planned for future shutdown. Additionally, U.S.-related vessels are facing special port fees, and some warehouses are refusing to accept Iranian and Venezuelan cargoes, which is anticipated to reduce future port arrivals [1] Demand - MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) demand remains stable this week, with no planned adjustments in the short term for the olefins industry. Traditional downstream demand shows mixed trends, leading to a narrow range of price adjustments in the domestic methanol market, with average auction results [1] Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totals 1.5122 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. Specifically, East China saw an increase of 30,000 tons, while South China experienced a decrease of 9,200 tons [1] Overall Market Outlook - According to WISCO Futures, the demand during the peak season has not materialized, and domestic inventories remain high. The weak market reality persists, although short-term pressure at ports has eased due to delays in unloading imported goods. Future price increases may be driven by expectations of improved conditions due to winter gas restrictions. A cautious approach is recommended [1]