国际能源署下调增长预期 全球光伏或迎来理性发展期

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global renewable energy generation capacity forecast for 2025-2030 down by 5%, indicating a total of approximately 3.68 terawatts of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, which still accounts for nearly 80% of the total renewable energy additions during this period, but at a slower growth rate than previously expected [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The downward revision is attributed to structural changes in the global PV market and key policy adjustments, with a projected reduction of about 248 gigawatts in global renewable energy capacity, of which 173 gigawatts is from solar [2] - In the U.S., the forecast for solar capacity is expected to decrease by over 140 gigawatts due to changes in tax incentives for residential solar systems, leading to a significant slowdown in distributed solar installations [2][3] - The IEA notes that issues such as insufficient grid capacity and complex approval processes continue to hinder solar project development in various regions [2][3] Group 2: Regional Performance - In contrast to the U.S., the European solar market is expected to remain robust, with countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy driving growth through renewable energy project auctions [3] - Despite varying policy execution speeds within the EU, factors such as declining industry costs, advancements in storage technology, and rising residential electricity prices are expected to sustain high levels of solar demand in Europe [3][4] Group 3: Future Projections - The IEA anticipates that by the end of 2030, renewable energy will become the largest source of electricity globally, accounting for 43% of total generation, with solar surpassing hydropower as the leading renewable source [4] - The global electricity demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.9% annually from 2025 to 2027, with renewable energy expected to meet 95% of this demand increase, half of which will come from solar PV [4][5] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia are becoming new growth hubs for solar PV, driven by the need to address fossil fuel price volatility and electricity shortages [5][6] - Countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are accelerating national solar projects, contributing to rapid increases in renewable energy capacity [6] Group 5: Systemic Challenges and Solutions - The IEA emphasizes the need for simultaneous upgrades in grid infrastructure, expansion of storage capabilities, and improvements in flexible dispatch mechanisms to activate the global renewable energy market [7] - The current challenge for the solar industry is transitioning from merely increasing installed capacity to optimizing usage, necessitating a focus on technological innovation, system integration, and operational efficiency [7][8] - A unified, transparent, and long-term policy framework is crucial for fostering confidence in solar development globally, as the industry undergoes a rebalancing of its global supply chain and market structure [8]