债市日报：10月23日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on October 23, with government bond futures closing down across the board, while interbank bond yields experienced a minor rebound. The net liquidity withdrawal from the open market was 23.5 billion yuan, leading to a slight decline in funding rates. Analysts suggest that the new fund redemption regulations set to take effect in November may limit the downward potential of yields for a certain period. Despite ongoing trade uncertainties, the likelihood of liquidity easing remains strong, indicating limited upward risks for bond yields [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed down, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.34% to 115.21, the 10-year main contract down by 0.12% to 108.035, the 5-year main contract down by 0.07% to 105.645, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.02% to 102.336 [2]. - Interbank major rate bond yields initially decreased before rising, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.911%, the 30-year government bond yield up by 1 basis point to 2.196%, and the 10-year government bond yield up by 1 basis point to 1.837% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.43 basis points to 3.4403%, the 3-year yield down by 1.12 basis points to 3.4386%, the 5-year yield down by 0.52 basis points to 3.5464%, the 10-year yield down by 0.58 basis points to 3.9474%, and the 30-year yield down by 0.66 basis points to 4.5287% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.2 basis points to 1.666% [4]. - In the Eurozone, bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year UK bond yield down by 6 basis points to 4.416%, while the 10-year French bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 3.353%, the 10-year German bond yield up by 1.1 basis points to 2.562%, the 10-year Italian bond yield up by 0.5 basis points to 3.346%, and the 10-year Spanish bond yield up by 1 basis point to 3.089% [4]. Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank's 1-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3649% and 1.6815%, respectively, with overall multiples of 2.31 and 3.94, and marginal multiples of 1.11 and 6.2 [5]. - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.7342% and 1.9415%, respectively, with overall multiples of 3.04 and 4.56, and marginal multiples of 3.24 and 3.38 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - On October 23, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate and quantity, totaling 212.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total amount of reverse repos maturing that day was 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [6]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a tender for 2025 central treasury cash management deposits, with a total winning amount of 120 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.76% [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.318%, the 7-day rate down by 0.5 basis points to 1.417%, the 14-day rate up by 6.0 basis points to 1.512%, and the 1-month rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.556% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the supply of Chinese dollar bonds is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, but supply elasticity may rise. With interest rate cuts, cross-border allocation demand, and a decline in credit risk, the yields on Chinese dollar bonds are expected to decrease further. The focus should be on high coupon rates and capital gains opportunities, with potential disruptions from tariffs, exchange rates, and foreign debt regulations [8]. - CITIC Securities notes that the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economy may lead to a sustained weakening of the U.S. dollar index. The Chinese central bank's policies are expected to be flexible to mitigate expectations of a one-sided currency trend [8].